Back to the future

As one of the leading players in the 5G technology ‘arms race’ currently underway, Ericsson have a unique perspective on the potential of the next generation of telecoms and how it will be rolled out. TowerXchange picked the brains of Ezio Zerbini, a vastly experienced CTO within Ericsson’s Italian telecoms unit, about how he sees this new technology rolling out, and what it means for tower owners.

TowerXchange: What’s your vision for 2020? Where do you think we will be with 4G/LTE+/5G rollouts?

Ericsson’s vision is that in 2020, society will start to become fully networked with connectivity not only on mobiles and devices but appliances at home too. 2020 will be a time of 5G, Internet of Things and everything Cloud.

In the context of this trend, we see 5G as the true enabler for industrial transformation; think, for example, of new manufacturing capabilities which would be enabled by networked robotics, and which are not possible with today’s technologies.

One of the highlights of 5G is the decrease of latency, as some of these new applications require a latency below 10 milliseconds. This is the ‘magic threshold’ where a robot, a car or an application can be comparable – and as reliable – to a human. We think that 2020 will be just the first rollout of machine type communications critical applications, but this will eventually move to consumer markets too, such as robots at home for domestic activities.

For the first time, the new generation of technology will not render the previous one redundant, so 4G will remain and the new generation will incorporate the previous one completely. Capacity will migrate onto the new 5G network but the ‘nervous system’ will remain on 4G. 5G will be mostly implemented using small cells in between existing 4G systems. Towercos will play a big role in running 4G networks and 5G small cells too. I believe much of the 5G rollout will be managed by other business entities rather than operators: towercos, private companies and so on.

Another application that will come later but will be improved is fixed wireless access; mobile networks will have capacity to compete with indoor fibre wiring. FTTB structure will be the main infrastructure, meanwhile 5G will cope with the offering of indoor wiring type solutions. There’s a battle between fibre and WiFi that will be solved by 5G; 5G small cells are a hybrid indoor/outdoor solution able to cope with the last 100m of the last mile.

5G also has the advantage to ensure zero time to market – as soon as you subscribe in the shop your service can be switched on immediately.

TowerXchange: How do you see small cells being deployed currently? Do you think operators and towercos are giving sufficient headroom to planning for future networks in their current rollouts? 

I think more capabilities and people need to be dedicated to network planning. Operators need to replicate the clusters without reinventing the wheel every time; things are so complex in this business so you need to have blueprint replication capabilities. Some operators in the US and Asia have started to adapt to this reality, but in Europe it’s still a challenge due to the fragmented market and lack of scale.

5G will be a boost of existing service and will cover some areas as a high capacity and low latency network. But only in some selected areas, it won’t be continuous coverage. It will completely change the networks and infrastructure so towercos need to be smart and get the right assets in place as soon as possible.

TowerXchange: What are the challenges which operators and towercos face in current small cell deployments? Do you see these challenges getting easier or more complex as time goes on? 

You need to get assets. Close the discussions, get assets every day.

TowerXchange: Could you give us an overview of the stakeholders who will need to work together for 5G rollout? How do you see their relationships changing over time? 

Stakeholders are the towercos, operators and municipalities, so they can share opex and negotiate. Of course this is a skill set towercos are used to employing.

The relationship will change completely. The focus will no longer be on business to business relationships but on strategic partnership relations. 5G will force cooperation. Any kind of cooperation will be successful, and the more you can cooperate the more relevant your capability will be.

TowerXchange: How will towercos need to adapt to meet the changing needs of their clients? 

They need to acquire assets, make joint ventures and have a multi-operator approach. Operators today need to have complete and dense coverage of 4G systems. It will be the nervous system of the future. Fibre assets need to be acquired as most of the fibre assets are already in place, there’s no room to roll out much more.

Governments need to understand that areas not covered by 5G will lose all relevance from an industrial point of view, so they need to push the different stakeholders to accelerate it.

5G is based on technologies that were developed in military applications. I am referring to phase array radars, they can focus microwave beams onto a target, they can move or rotate the beam and follow the target without any mechanical movement. Using the beam technology, you can concentrate the RF power and you can go through walls and cross the in-building loss which today is a barrier to use high-frequency spectrum. You can use spectrum you can’t use at all today. The other key point is the size of antennae. 5G is a technology which enables higher spectrum bands for mobile applications and increase the bandwidth. The plan is to disguise these antennae in streetlamps and you won’t even see them.